Calciotips

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25.07. ICC Tottenham Hotspur - AS Roma, Home -0.25 (AH) @ 1.78 stake: 7/10


AS Roma played a decent game against PSG few days ago, however they showed some inconsistence in defence on several occasions. In this game some of the new signings (Kolarov, Defrel) will make their debute for the team so I expect perhaps that Roma will not be so fluent, trying some new tactical schemes - up front and in defense. Roma are expected to start with better line-up, while Tottenham is expected to leave their best offensive players on the bench and launch them in the second half. So I expect somewhat balanced first half and perhaps, Tottenham will have the upper hand in the second when Roma will play with mixed team and the overall better physical preparation of the English team at this stage of the season, (EPL starts earlier than Serie A) and their strong offensive line to be decisive and perhaps to win the game for the English team.GL!

 

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Result

25.07. ICC Tottenham Hotspur - AS Roma, Home -0.25 (AH) @ 1.78 stake: 7/10 LOST -7


AS Roma played a decent game against PSG few days ago, however they showed some inconsistence in defence on several occasions. In this game some of the new signings (Kolarov, Defrel) will make their debute for the team so I expect perhaps that Roma will not be so fluent, trying some new tactical schemes - up front and in defense. Roma are expected to start with better line-up, while Tottenham is expected to leave their best offensive players on the bench and launch them in the second half. So I expect somewhat balanced first half and perhaps, Tottenham will have the upper hand in the second when Roma will play with mixed team and the overall better physical preparation of the English team at this stage of the season, (EPL starts earlier than Serie A) and their strong offensive line to be decisive and perhaps to win the game for the English team.GL!

Very late goal cost 7 units!

 

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Pick 2

Football / Friendly / Kick off: 29 Jul 2017, Chelsea -0.50 (AH) - FC Inter odds@ 1.847, 7/10 PINNACLE

edit: preview from earlier today


Main bookies just released odds for this game so I urge to be taken fast. Inter are playing at the moment another ICC friendly with Bayern and just in 2 days they will face Chelsea. I think we will see different Inter than the one against Bayern. At this preparation period this is too short time to have two effective friendly games so it was logical that Inter may sacrifice the performance in one for the other. I was waiting to see the aproach of Spalletti in the first game to make conclusions for the second. For over 60 min Inter played with their presumable first line with perhaps only one or two exceptions and changes started after 60th min. So he chose the real test to be against Bayern and Chelsea game is likely to be more experimental. Therefore I expect that Spalletti will give more time to the reserves in two days when Inter play Chelsea. May I should add that Inter will have some missings too as captain and goalscorer Icardi is long term injury, while regular centre-backs from the last season - Medel and Murillo will likely not play as both are to be transferred and Spalletti is building new defensive couple. Given that Chelsea are starting their season in just 10 days I expect Conte to give good spell in this game against Inter to his best line-up as last preparation for the English SC next weekend. In this situation and given that Chelsea presumably will be in better physical condtion - both because of earlier start of their season and because unlike Inter they will have the "regular" 4 days to rest before this game I see good value with Chelsea win here, GL!

 

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FREE PICK friendly 02.08

Free pick from my mail tipster service:

Football / Friendly / Kick off: 02 Aug 2017, 20:45 (CET), Man.United (Eng) -Sampdoria (It), HT-FT Man.Unitied @+230, 4/10

I am going with this as free pick since I couldn't find proper line to qualify as paid pick. Aslo asian bookies keeping out of it which says a lot itself. Sampdoria left today for Dublin (where the game will take place) with a roaster which is yet in construction. Their president is seriously ill which also might have something to do with the fact they are so behind with the incoming transfers of new players. Italian squad was substentially weakened this summer losing few key players and especially in attack they looked somewhat toothless in their last friendlies. It is not a surprise since they lost their top scorer from last season who left for Spain and their most talanted striker is out of action till mid August. All in all Sampdoria are not a good looking team atm. On the other hand this is last game for Man.Utd. before the Uefa SC again Real M. in a week from now, I expect Mourinho to have the same approach as the last friendly against Valerenga to prepare his team better, which is starting the first lineup and playing them for 45-60 min. There is not too much room for experiments, the coordination must be improved as I think playing his former club and trying to win is very important for Jose. So the way I see it there is a good chance Man.Utd. will manage here to take the lead with their best (or close to ) lineup in the first HT and then likely to hold on and win this game, despite many changes(likely in both teams) in the 2nd half as Sampdoria roaster is certainly not at the level of the English team right now! However lets not forget to mention that Giampaolo - Samp's manager is excellent tactician and his team is not easy to beat, so small stake and free pick.GL!

 

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Euope League pick 03.08

Europa League / Kick off: 03 Aug 2017, 20:45 (CET) AC Milan - CS U Craiova, Home -2.00 (AH) @ +189, stake 5/10 Pinnacle

pick from my tipster service:

Odds rised a little today which is the perfect moment to take them as I don't see much chance odds to rise more. For me Milan are much the better team, they controlled well the game in the first leg and Craiova made impression of young and inexperienced side. At San Siro Milan will be way more confident and strong, large number of fans are expected to attend -at least 60 000 crowd.There's great enthusiasm among fans and players, spirits and optimism are sky-high around the club and Milan will be much more prepared and ready for this game after 1 additional week of training at home. Some adjustments in the lineup will be made in midfield and attack which I rate positive and I see Milan scoring not less than 2 goals while I have doubts Craiova will manage to score, judging from what they showed in the first leg. I like the line, imo it's unlikely we will see this line rising.GL!

 

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Italian Super Cup, 13.08. Juventus - Lazio both to score, odds around +190, stake 5-6/10

Game will be played at Olimpico in Rome, good attendance is expected but as we know Lazio will feel at home despite probably equal number of fans on the stands. Biggest doubts for Allegri is the defense, where we saw some inconsistences in the latest friendlies. Coordination is not at the level required and so early in the season the players are not at their best. I think Lazio have good chance to explore these weaknesses in Juventus backline, the team from Torino just doesn't seem to be the same unbeatable machine like at the end of the last season and Lazio surely have good chances to score. In the preseason friendlies Lazio showed good ability to score goals, Immobile seemed in good form while Felipe Anderson have minor injury and will start from the bench and Keita will take his place, playing against possibly his future club. In the summer games teams are often prone to allow "easy" goals as the form and condition is not at the top, both teams have good offensive capabilities and having the "home" advantage I think Lazio also have good chances to score. For me odds around 1.9 is a decent price, even could be taken LIVE, as pre-game odds slightly dropped.GL!

 

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Cl pick 16.08.

CL 16.08. 20:45 CET Napoli - OGC Nice, Napoli win to nil odds @ +200 (+190), stake 5/10

I prefered this line at this point, compared to AH lines for home win. Reason is that Napoli surely will dominate the game but question is how effective they will be in front of goal. They are in good form, but not top, their strikers are missing most of the created chances and this is normal for August. But this is my main concern here - Napoli may score 4 goals or 1 goal, depends how clinical they will be on the night. Nice surely will park the bus and this will not help Napoli, but French defense ain't too solid either. I explained other arguments in my another preview, so I will not repeat them here again - about situation with the players in Nice (Balo and Sneijder will miss this game, plus other players who left this summer), about Napoli's and their coach Sarri's approach to the game. I believe the home team will be very focused on wining and wining to nil, while the guests will be limited in their capacity to score here, because they will be dominated largely in midfield but still current odds does not deserve more than small-medium stakes.GL!

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Calciotips - Europa League pick - less than 1 hour to go!

[FONT=&quot]17.08. 20:45 CET, EL Milan (-1 AH) HT - Craiova, odds +187 Pinnacle, stake 4-5/10

[/FONT]Perhaps some value in this line but it is more of a free try. Milan with better lineup and better physical condition compared to their home game 2 weeks ago, against a team which is perhaps even worse than their previous opponents. Surely Milan will be aiming to secure HT lead here. Quite safe line. GL!


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Pick 20.08. Serie a

[FONT=&quot]Serie A, 20.08, 20:45 CET Inter-Fiorentina, Over 3.25 odds @+243, stake 4/10 PINNACLE
[/FONT]The way I see this game there might be 2 possible scenarios. Inter are heavily favorized by the bookies, perhaps too much given that it is first round and neither team will be in their top condition, which generally will favour the underdog. We shouldn't underestimate the fact that Viola coach Pioli was former Inter coach just few months ago, so he knows a lot about their team and how to counter them. Inter are far from perfect team and Pioli knows this. Fiorentina either will dig in and try to block Inter with compact defensive play which probably will result in 1 or 2 goals defeat or will try some proactive approach, looking to explore Inter's deffects. I think Pioli will go for the second and will try to surprise his former club - if he succeeds it will be sweet revenge for him and if he loses nobody will blame him, given the current situation in Fiorentina. Will Pioli and Viola succeed in this is another matter as they are very different from the team they were 3 months ago, losing many key players and somewhat unconvincing transfer politics so far. I see here some chances for high scoring game.GL!

 

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WCQ free pick

WC Qualif. 02.09. 20:45 CET Spain - Italy, both to score @ +215, stake 4/10

Decisive match in Madrid for the first place in the group. Bookies keep the lines pretty high here based on the historical record between the two teams and importance of the game but things have changed. Italian team under Ventura is playing very offensive tactics, also because of the many young talented strikers in the Italian team, which requires these players to be utilized. It was expected that he will play 3-4-3 or 3-4-1-2, but after Chiellini's injury 3 men defense is no longer option for Ventura and Italy is going for 4-2-4, which is very risky but could make the game unpredictable. This however will allow both leading strikers Belotti and Immobile to start. Spain will be without D.Costa which is a blow, but they are the hosts and will count on their typical ball possession to mount constant pressure and create chances. My genuine sense is that the players in both teams at this early stage of the season are not in their best physical condition and defensively they might not be as solid and impeccable as we often see them in big competitions. With so many excellent options in attack (I do see Italy better in this line than Spain) and in must score situation I do expect Italy to find the net at Bernabeu one way or another, while the hosts should be able to do this as well. GL!

 

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Serie B, free pick

Italy, Serie B, 08.09, 20:30 CET Pescara - Frosinone away+0.25(AH), odds@ +1.81, Dafabet, stake 6/10


Pescara so far have various issues in defense, particulary the central defense, where according to the words of their coach Zeman things are not good enough. Obviously it is so, after 5 goals conceded in just 2 games. In the first round this season I took them for home win against newly promoted Foggia with my service and they delivered big time after 5:1 win, but this time they have different type of team coming to Adriatico. Frosinone are very good team all around and even with important player like Dionisi out suspended (and few more, but not so important) they are capable of delivering solid team gameplay. This is the main reason for this pick - Pescara are too shaky too be trusted, while Frosinone are quite solid, even with few missing players that have the depth in the squad to handle it.GL!

 

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Serie A pick

Italy, Serie A, 09.09. 18:00 CET Juventus - Chievo, both to score, odds around +264 and >, stake 4/10

Odds are dancing betweeen 2.5 and 2.8 but some decent bookies still offer odds above 2.6. Juventus will make changes in many positions for this game, some forced, some with view of the upcoming game against Barcelona in CL, which would be 4th game in just 10 days for some players returning from International duties like Barzagli, Buffon etc. So turnover for Juventus, especially in defense where for the first time for many months it is very likely there'll be no one from the famous BBC trio - Bonucci (now in Milan), Chiellini (injured) and Barzagli (becnhed). Add to this the absence of Buffon who also will be rested and the injury of the key defensive midfielder Khedira also out, and pretty much that means the whole famous "impeccable" Juventus defensive wall from the recent years will simply not be there on Saturday. Juventus are already showing cracks at the back this seson and without a single leader from the defensive line present I can sense some problems coming. Exactly because of this I still have some suspicions that Allegri might change his mind in the last moment and through in either Buffon or Barzagli to boost the confidence and have a leader, however I'm taking these chances. On the pitch we could see some of the new signings, but Serie A is never an easy place to make a debute, no matter how experienced is the player. Well, this doesn't mean Chievo are booked to score here, but they surely have their chances, given what they showed in the first two rounds very good typical gameplay, their playmaker Birsa looks quite inform and they don't have many selection worries with the lineup, certainly nothing to change my mind here. Intresting enough, for their 14 seasons in topflight, Chievo have scored exactly in 50% of their away games in Torino against Juventus so most certainly, even from purely statistical point of view these odds are value. Of course my pick is not based only or predominantly on such statistics, given the current situation in both teams, Chievo have very decent chances to score against this provisional Juventus defensive line. In attack though Dybala might be start from the bench too, but things look way better with the other usual suspects upfront plus the new signings D.Costa and Bernardeschi. Chievo are solid but hardly will keep clean sheet at the Stadium - they never had in all their 14 games in Torino. All in all pure value here, deserving a shot IMO .GL!




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Champions L, Free pick!

[h=3]13.09. 20:45 CET, Shakhtar D. - Napoli, Napoli to score over 1,5 goals, odds @ +188 with Pinnacle, stake 6/10[/h]
Game will be played in Kharkiv, but that isn't something new for the Ukrainian team. May be from a psychological point of view could be a little relief for the guests. Both teams are offensively minded and Shakhtar in general likes to make the game and perhaps they will try to do so in certain periods of time, so I don't expect them to be ultra defensive. This might put some pressure on Napoli's defense but also could open spaces to attack with their fast wings. I have my doubts that if Shakhtar starting lineup and tactics is the one predicted by the media, that their external players Marlos and Taison will be able to track back efficiently, which will be very important to stop Napoli. As I said Shakhtar is used play in attack and control the game but they also often concede goals and will have to see how they will adopt to Napoli's style, when Ukrainians are forced to defend. 3 changes are likely to see in Napoli's starting 11, compared to the last game with Polish central striker Milik likely to start instead of Mertens, difficult to say how this will turn out. Milik is fast and powerful and 2 Ukrainian centre-backs are not rock solid, but Napoli don't play with him so often now and we have to see how will be mutual coordination with the wings Insigne and Callejon. Then Mertens will always be an option from the bench, so hard to see that Napoli will not find the net for 90 min. All in all I think Napoli have good chances to expose the home team defense, mostly because on a tactical level Shakhtar is not used to play teams like Napoli that often, so they might make more defensive mistakes than they usually do and Napoli to score more than once. GL!

 

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Europa League 1 hour to start

Europa L, 14.09. 19:00 CET Atalanta (It) - Everton (Eng), Atalanta to score over 1,25 goals, odds @ +208 with Pinnacle, stake 5-6/10


The game will be played at Mapei Stadium - home of Sassuolo, which doesn't mean Atalanta will miss home support, thousands will make the 2 hour trip and I expect full house. The Bergamaschi will feature pretty much best lineup while Everton likely to play mixed team as they have few injury worries, couple of key players not starting (Lennon out, Rooney benched perhaps) and very important game against Man Utd in the weekend which they need to think about. If you look at the bookies' odds for Atalanta over 0,5 goals it looks like a sure thing that Atalanta will score, as odds are below 1.3 with home win around 2.4 is rare thing to see such margin. I generally agree with the bookies here but still have my doubts how Gasperini will approach the game - i think he might either try to win it 1:0 or not lose it in the worse case. Both teams lack expereince in Europe, so that's is very big ?-mark here how this will effect their performance. Atalanta and their passionate fans have been waitng this moment for almost the entire previous season and it is their dream coming true today, but the question is which will prevail in their performance on the pitch- tension and nervousness or enthusiasm and psychological home advantage. Everton are nowhere near top teams in EPL, their are physical and direct, but they might find out that Atalanta are ready for this, as bergamaschi are one of the best prepared physically teams in Serie A, plus they are very technical side nevertheless. Line is great with Pinnie (especially keeping in mind the funny over 0,5 line for Atalanta to score atm) I believe we are risking here not more than half stake and with a bit of luck could double it.GL!

 

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Serie A 20.09. Free pick 1,5 hours to go!

Serie A, 20:45 CET, Atalanta (-1.25 AH) - Crotone, odds around +200 (live also possible), stake 5/10


Atalanta need to win this game in order to fix their table situation. Also the upcoming games are very complicated (away to Fiorentina and home to Juventus in between EL games). So really this shouldn't be the night to drop points. However of course the tight schedule is always a risk to produce unpexpected results for teams playing in several competitions, including in Europe, so hence the free pick and medium stakes. Good thing is that Gomez and Petagna - the men in form for the home team are both set to start and the coach Gasperini clearly wants to win this. Crotone played well at home in their last game, they show improvement this season but the real problem for the team is the lack of goals - the only team without scoring a single goal so far in Serie A! And tonight their best striker is likely to be on the bench, perhaps with view of the next two games against direct competitors for survival like Benevento and Spal which will be crucial. I'm going with the home team with this line, GL!

 

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Free pick Serie A, 23.09.

Italy, Serie A, 20:45 CET (less than 4 hours to kickoff), Juventus - Torino, home win, odds @ +140/145 at least (could be taken live), stake 10/10


I'm going with high stakes here. Yes, it is a derby but I'm still against Torino, despite their last win, they just don't click enough as a team and against Juventus this simply can't work. Juventus may not be at their best, but they will find quickly the flaws in this Torino 4-2-3-1 tactics and punish them. Only 5 teams remained undefeated in Serie A so far and after the 6th round I belive Toro will not be one of them as they deserve it least. The return of Liechsteiner, Sandro, Pjianic will make Juventus look better on the wings and in the middle.GL!

 

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FREE Pick Europa League

Europa League, 28.09.19:00 CET, Lazio - Zulte Waregem, under 3.5 goals, odds +182 with Pinnacle, stake 5/10

Odds kept rising and reached a point in which for me there's some value but it's marginal call nevertheless. The game will be played at empty Olimpico in Rome with only 100-200 away supporters and will be some very strange atmosphere to play at such a huge empty stadium (72K capacitiy) for the players of both teams. Lazio with substential turnover again, forced in many positions as key players are injured in defense and midfield. It will be very much Lazio second line, even if coach Inzaghi denied there is such thing as "second line" on the pressconference today, but we must face the truth - only few players from the expected starting lineup against Zulte will make it there if all Lazio players were fit and the game was a 100% "must win" against solid opposition. Zulte are modest team but trashing against Nice in the previous round was probably exagerated. Several of Nice 5 goals came after counterattacks while Zulte was wide open, trying to put some pressure on the visitors. Probably at Olimpico they will have more ballanced approach and defend with more players behind the line of the ball, giving the initiative to Lazio. I think the Belgian team will try to avoid another disaster like the one against Nice and infront of an empty stadium against Lazio with at least 5-6 reserve players and probably playing in slow-tempo game, they have not a bad chance to keep this tighter than bookies are suggesting and within the 3 goals total. GL!

 

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Serie A PICK 14.10. 20:45 CET

Serie A, 14.10. Roma (+0.5 AH) - Napoli, odds @ +177 Pinnacle, stake 6/10

Pressure is building on the away win lines, creating value on Roma, which I decided to take. Napoli have played well before the international break, but so were Roma, in fact Roma are improving their performances compared to the start of the season, and the ideas of their new coach are starting to work. This game is old southern rivalry between the teams from the two most important cities in the south and always has a special taste for both clubs. Neither will underestimate this game, despite the CL clashes coming next week. Napoli are doing great so far, but this will be probably their toughest challenge away from home and for me odds are not right. In some of their away games they showed inconsistence and most certainly not the same level of flair as they usually show at home – like the games away to Shaktar D. in CL, against Spal etc. Their defense especially, still is not convincing enough and at Olimpico against Roma they will have plenty of difficult moments in front of their goal. Of course Napoli have great offensive line as well, but point is that Roma at home have enough potential in all lines to disrupt Napoli’s gameplay and current odds don’t reflect this IMO. Both teams will be close to their best lineups with Roma missing one important midfielder but I think they can cope with it. Napoli have won all their games so far, but this is the one game away from home I wouldn’t back them so easily and with the current odds value lies with Roma. GL!

 

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Serie A PICK 14.10. 20:45 CET

Roma (+0.5 AH) - Napoli, odds +178 Sbobet, stake 6/10

Pressure is building on the away win lines, creating value on Roma, which I decided to take. Napoli have played well before the international break, but so were Roma, in fact Roma are improving their performances compared to the start of the season, and the ideas of their new coach are starting to work. This game is old southern rivalry between the teams from the two most important cities in the south and always has a special taste for both clubs. Neither will underestimate this game, despite the CL clashes coming next week. Napoli are doing great so far, but this will be probably their toughest challenge away from home and for me odds are not right. In some of their away games they showed inconsistence and most certainly not the same level of flair as they usually show at home – like the games away to Shaktar D. in CL, against Spal etc. Their defense especially, still is not convincing enough and at Olimpico against Roma they will have plenty of difficult moments in front of their goal. Of course Napoli have great offensive line as well, but point is that Roma at home have enough potential in all lines to disrupt Napoli’s gameplay and current odds don’t reflect this IMO. Both teams will be close to their best lineups with Roma missing one important midfielder but I think they can cope with it. Napoli have won all their games so far, but this is the one game away from home I wouldn’t back them so easily and with the current odds value lies with Roma. GL!

PS: I am not sure i posted the pick the first time, so I post it again. If it's dupicated disregard the second one!

 

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UEFA CL PICK 1h, 30 min left!

UEFA CL 18.10. 20:45 CET, Juventus – Sporting L, over 2.25 goals, odds +175 @ Pinnacle, stake 6/10

Ok, as I predicted in my preview for the last round in Serie A, Juventus showed all their deficiencies at the back this season in the first serious home test against Lazio. However what is typical for Allegri and his Juventus is that they always focus to the maximum and show strong reaction after losing a game. I count on this for the CL against Sporting and knowing Allegri he will work a lot on the psychological condition of his players to have them totally focused and eager to win. The players who were perhaps not at 100% after the International games, especially in attack (Dybala, Mandzukic along with Pjanic) will all be recovered and ready to start. This means that the home team will be close to their best lineup with exception of the defense. I expect very vivid and persistent Juventus looking for the win and looking to score from the beginning till the end. They have fairly easy game in the weekend away to the struggling Udinese and I don’t think they should be worried about saving energy against Sporting. But again it is the defense that could have issues in this game – Sandro will return on the left, but there’s another problem on the right, where De Scilio is still injured, Lichtsteiner is not in the CL list which leaves no true fullbacks and again midfielder Sturaro (slow) will have to adjust there. Given that central defense with Barzagli and Chiellini showed cracks against Lazio I think Juventus will have problems sooner or later with Sporting in this game – after all it’s CL game and we know that almost anyone can score against anyone here and Sporting will come to fight for sure. Imo Sporting are not the team that can fend off Juventus’ attacks for 90min and will concede goals, but they showed good counter-attacking capabilities against Olimpiakos, their attack stats is quite ok with average of 2 goals/game in the Portugal league and for this game key striker Doumbia is set to return after injury and will be available with Dost also ready to join. I prefer this line as if Sporting scores (which I rate very possible) I believe it will be a winner, but if not Juventus might be able to cover the line by themselves as they will score not less than 2 goals imo. GL!